Chris Randall
Chris Randall
Chris Randall is an analyst on the data insights team. He has a passion for: helping firms understand what incentives are useful in order to drive consumer behavior, as well as developing models used to identify and predict trends in guest activity. He holds graduate degrees in applied economics from the University of Cincinnati as well as the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH).

How to Tell If Your Promotions Are Driving Visits That Would Have Occurred Anyway

The aim of many marketing efforts is to drive incremental guest behavior, like increasing guest spend or driving additional visits. But, how do you know if the behavior is truly incremental? How much of the lift is due to the campaign versus behavior that would have occurred anyway? Are we giving discounts to guests who would have been willing to pay full price?  These are questions you may have heard from your finance team, franchisees and operators.

Reporting on incremental behavior can be difficult to answer with general marketing media such as TV and radio spots, billboards, or Internet banners. However, because of the one-to-one nature of your loyalty program, these are questions that can and should be answered.

To address these questions, we recommend implementing “target and control campaigns.”  Target and control campaigns allow marketers to conduct real world experiments where the results are clear and easily understood.

Testing offers requires two groups that exhibit identical characteristics: A target group and a control group. First, define the population you want to target in your campaign. Your target audience could be just about any segment within your data such as all members who haven’t visited in the last 3 months, or all members who joined your program during the last quarter for example. Once you have defined your target group, the Paytronix software will automatically segment a randomly selected subset of the target population. ­­During the length of the campaign, the control group should have the exact same experience as the target group except for the offer you are testing. In more advanced tests, you could further segment the test cell groups into sub-segments based on offers.